In June, SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history. One quarter later, Rocket Lab, Planet Labs and AST SpaceMobile had each lost more than 30%, even as private investors put a record $20.8bn into space startups. Our read is that private rounds are pricing in a SpaceX most of these companies will never become, which makes the question of who leads Europe’s late-stage rounds a matter of real money.
The float that reset the benchmark
SpaceX listed on Nasdaq on 12 June in the largest IPO in history, closing its first day up 19% at a market value above $2 trillion. Space Capital calls it the largest liquidity event in venture capital's history, generating more exit value than every VC-backed IPO of the past decade combined.
Europe’s milestone came on 5 September. Isar Aerospace’s Spectrum reached orbit from Andøya, Norway, on its second flight. ESA described it as the first orbital launch from continental Europe and confirmed that Isar had become the first European Launcher Challenge participant to meet the programme’s orbital milestone.
For investors, that achievement shifts attention towards repeatability: launch frequency, production capacity and the financing needed to turn a successful mission into a dependable service.
Capital is chasing the bottleneck
According to the quarterly tracker published by Seraphim Space, a London-based space investment manager, private SpaceTech funding reached a record $20.8bn in Q3 2026. Excluding Blue Origin’s $10bn financing, investment still reached $10.8bn, exceeding every previous quarter in Seraphim’s series.
Space Access companies (launch, manufacturing and satellite build) took $16.4bn across 120 deals; even excluding Blue Origin, that was a quarterly record. The driver is scarcity: SpaceX has stopped taking rideshare reservations beyond late 2028, and Seraphim expects little relief before 2029.
The rest of the listed sector has not shared the gains. Planet Labs, AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab each fell more than 30% in Q3, even as private funding hit records. For investors, that gap between private rounds and public prices is now the valuation risk to watch.
Europe vs the US: the gap in numbers
Europe’s space venture market is attracting record investment in 2026, but a substantial funding gap with the US remains.
Governments spent €119bn on space in 2025; the US accounted for 58% and Europe for 11%, or €13.5bn. The US share of global government space spending was more than five times Europe’s.
The direction, though, is moving Europe's way. On Space Capital's broader count, Europe raised a record $6.3bn in Q3, 28% of global investment and its highest share since 2019, and $13.5bn in the first nine months, more than in any previous full year.
Europe's breakout year
According to Dealroom’s September snapshot, 2026 is already Europe’s biggest year for space venture capital: $3.9bn raised by 22 September, more than half again the 2021 record.
This narrower total is not directly comparable with Space Capital’s $13.5bn figure. Space Capital includes businesses such as Helsing, Quantum Systems and TEKEVER; Dealroom’s cited Space-industry dataset excludes Quantum Systems and TEKEVER, as well as grants, debt and public-market transactions.
Larger rounds are driving the increase in funding. The median European space round rose from $1.1m in 2020 to a provisional $10m in 2026 so far, and six of the eight largest rounds this year went to hardware: satellites, rockets and a reusable capsule. Government demand, including defence procurement, is helping drive investment in space infrastructure. Dealroom forecasts a record $10.5bn of European defence-tech VC in 2026.
ESA member states committed a record €22.1bn at their November 2025 ministerial meeting, and in August 2026 ESA began signing its first European Launcher Challenge contracts, worth €197.8m for Isar Aerospace, €186.9m for Rocket Factory Augsburg and €158.9m for PLD Space.
Founders to watch
ICEYE, The Exploration Company, Isar Aerospace and EnduroSat illustrate the range of capabilities attracting substantial funding: radar satellites, reusable space transportation, launch vehicles and satellite manufacturing.
The late-stage and exit gap
European space companies are raising larger rounds, but Europe’s domestic private investors have yet to demonstrate the capacity to lead scaleup financing consistently. Public-market exit routes also remain limited.
Out of nine European space scaleup rounds in 2025, five were led by public bodies and all four private-led rounds had American leads. ESPI’s April 2026 report puts IPOs and SPACs at 9% of European space exit value since 2022, compared with 27% in the US. That comparison predates SpaceX’s listing. Of 46 acquisitions of European space companies tracked by ESPI during 2014–2025, 35% involved buyers from outside Europe, predominantly from the US.
Liquidity may also occur prior to an IPO or acquisition through secondary sales of existing shares. In ICEYE’s Series F transaction of more than €1bn, €450m was new capital for the company, while the remainder was distributed amongst existing shareholders selling their stakes. Molten Ventures received £22m in cash, presenting how a large funding round can also provide liquidity for earlier investors. For LPs, such sales can enable cash distributions prior to a full exit, turning some of a fund’s paper gains into realised returns.
Announced acquisitions elsewhere illustrate the scale of potential exit routes: in Q2, Rocket Lab agreed to acquire Iridium at an enterprise value of approximately $8bn, while Amazon agreed to acquire Globalstar in a deal valued at approximately $11.6bn.
The Scaleup Europe Fund is an emerging response to that pattern. Managed by EQT, it targets €5bn across strategic technology sectors, including space, and has announced co-lead roles in ICEYE and The Exploration Company. Its participation shows European investors beginning to share leadership of major rounds alongside American capital.
The test is what that position allows European investors to achieve. Board representation, shareholder rights and the ability to fund subsequent rounds matter more than the nationality of a single lead investor. Co-leadership can strengthen a company’s options, but the public announcements do not disclose enough information to establish European control.
The fund’s contribution will become clearer when these companies need capital again. Its follow-on commitments and ability to attract additional investors will show whether the first investments created lasting financing alternatives.
Market Pulse
Seraphim also manages a London-listed investment trust, SSIT. Its net asset value per share more than doubled in the year to June 2026, driven mainly by satellite company ICEYE, which accounted for roughly 54% of net assets. For investors, that concentration matters: much of the fund’s performance depends on one company.
What investors should watch
SpaceX showed the scale of investor appetite for an integrated space business. Europe is beginning to build the late-stage financing capacity its own space companies need. The next test is whether that capital gives them lasting influence over their strategy and credible choices when they raise again or seek an exit.
- For VCs: underwrite the government customer as well as the technology, and plan the exit early. With few European acquirers, the route to liquidity should shape who joins the cap table.
- For LPs: assess whether growth managers can lead large rounds and reserve enough capital to support companies through subsequent financings. Initial participation is only the first test.
- What to watch: Isar's launch cadence, Q4 funding data, and whether European growth capital arrives at scale.